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Elon Musk has a stunning prediction for what cars will be like 10 years from now

Elon Musk
Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk, right, talks to United Arab Emirates Minister of Cabinet Affairs Mohammad Al Gergawi at the World Government Summit in Dubai on Monday.Kamran Jebreili


Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that in a decade most new cars would be built with full autonomy.

“I think we will see autonomy and artificial intelligence advance tremendously,” Musk said at the World Government Summit in Dubai on Monday. “My guess is that in probably 10 years it will be very unusual for cars to be built that are not fully autonomous.”

Tesla’s cars are already being produced with a sensor system that Musk says can enable full autonomy. And Musk has said Tesla aims to drive one of its cars in autonomous mode across the country by the end of this year.

But just because Tesla vehicles have the tech to enable full autonomy doesn’t mean the company has rolled out its self-driving system. Tesla says its autonomous feature depends on more software validation and regulatory approval.

Other major automakers have similar timelines for their autonomous vehicles. Ford, for example, aims to roll out its Level 4 autonomous car in a commercial setting by 2021. Others are working to launch Level 3 autonomous systems by 2021.

But while driverless cars will be here soon, it will take some time before people feel the true effect of the technology, Musk said.

“There are about 2 billion cars in the world, and the total annual production capacity is about 100 million cars, which makes sense since the average life of a car before being totally scrapped is about 20 to 25 years,” Musk said.

“So the point at which we see autonomy appear will not be the point at which there is a massive societal impact on people, because it will take a lot of time to make enough autonomous vehicles to disrupt,” he added. “So that disruption will take place over about 20 years.”



  1. Morty says:

    Elon Musk is correct, UBI is the future it is already being Tested in San Francisco Bay Area!

  2. pk smith says:

    Thanks for your useful and edifying comment, which clearly reveals that UBI is currently being tested in SF.

    Not. The concept is currently being studied, but not implemented/tested in any fashion whatsoever.

    “Amanda Fried, policy and legislative manager at the OFE, told Curbed SF that at this stage the city is very interested in a basic income pilot and is studying its feasibility, but that they’re only at the earliest stages of assessing the idea.”

    Use caution when trying to excoriate someone with the use of lmgtfy – it can make you look like ignorant smartass.

  3. Dana says:

    Thank you for posting this! Super interesting and will look for mroe on it!

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